Ryanair Lowers Traffic Forecast Due to Boeing MAX Delays

DALLAS — Ryanair (FR), Europe's largest airline by passenger number, has revised its passenger forecast for the upcoming financial year. Instead of the previously projected 205 million passengers, the airline now expects to carry between 198 million and 200 million passengers.

According to a Reuters report, this adjustment is due to the delays in Boeing's delivery of the 57 Boeing MAX 8-200 planes FR was supposed to receive by the end of April. However, due to production challenges at Boeing, only 40 jets will be delivered by the end of June.

As a result of the reduced aircraft availability, FR will have to reduce approximately 10 aircraft lines flying from its 600-strong fleet during the peak summer months of July, August, and September. This reduction in capacity, combined with the grounding of up to 20% of Airbus competitors' A320 fleets in Europe, is expected to lead to constrained capacity and slightly higher airfares for consumers in Europe during the summer of 2024.

Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary expressed confidence in Boeing's ability to resolve these production delays and quality control issues. The airline will continue to work with Boeing to accept deliveries from July to September and expects some traffic growth during September and October. However, fares during the shoulder months will be lower to achieve this.

To mitigate the impact of the schedule cuts, FR has already implemented adjustments at certain higher-cost airports, including those in Portugal, Dublin, Milan, Malpensa, and Warsaw Modlin. The airline has offered alternative flight times or full refunds to affected passengers.

Last May, FR chose the Boeing 737 MAX series aircraft for its future fleet expansion, ordering up to 300 planes. The purchase agreement is the largest in the airline's history and includes a firm order for 150 Boeing 737-10 jets and an option for another 150. FR was already expanding its fleet with Boeing 737-8-200 airplanes to support its post-pandemic recovery and satisfy the return of travel demand.

At the time, O'Leary said, "We anticipate that 150 of the aircraft will replace older NGs, and the remaining 150 will support controlled, sustainable growth, allowing us to serve over 300 million passengers annually by 2034."

Featured image: N4022A (will be EI-HGH), Ryanair Boeing 737-8-200 MAX | Photo: Michael Rodeback/Airways