Ryanair First-Half Profit Falls 15% as Fuel Bill Could Rise €2bn

DUBLIN — Ryanair Holdings reported a 15% fall in first-half fiscal 2027 profit after tax to €2.15bn on November 2, warning its fuel bill could rise about €2bn in the year ending March 2028.

Passengers increased 6% to 125.8 million, but average fares fell 4% to €55.70. Revenue rose 3% to €10.08bn while operating costs increased 10% to €7.69bn.

Ryanair attributed the cost increase partly to a doubling in the price of its unhedged fuel and the end of supplier compensation after its final Boeing 737-8200 delivery in spring 2026.

Fuel hedges roll off

Ryanair has hedged 80% of fuel for the year through March 2027 at about US$67 a barrel, compared with 25% at about US$95 for the following year. Its €2bn estimate uses current forward prices. Management expects higher fares to provide only a partial offset.

The change increases exposure in two ways: a larger share of requirements remains unhedged, while the portion already covered carries a higher price.

Chief Executive Michael O'Leary said fares would need to rise about 20% in the year ending March 2028 to cover the expected increase, but was unsure Ryanair could achieve that, Reuters reported from the results presentation. That is a recovery threshold, rather than an announced fare increase.

Cost review and fleet plans

The group's cost review includes airport negotiations, possible temporary pay freezes as labor agreements mature, lower crewing ratios and greater use of artificial intelligence in operational and support functions. Reuters reported that a potential pay freeze would apply from April 2027 onward.

Airport costs have already shaped the network. Airways previously reported on Ryanair's Baltic capacity shifts tied to airport charges, with growth in Riga and cuts in Estonia and Lithuania.

Fleet deliveries also remain conditional. According to Reuters, Ryanair's chief financial officer said the first Boeing 737-10 could arrive in January or early February 2027 if the European Union Aviation Safety Agency completes certification on time.

Ryanair withheld full-year profit guidance, citing limited visibility into its fourth quarter and volatile unhedged fuel costs.