Cirium Report: U.S. Flight Operations amid Gov Shutdown

Oct 20, 2025 8:49 AM

EST

DALLAS — Cirium, the global aviation analytics leader, continues to monitor U.S. airline operational performance as the federal government shutdown heads to its third week. Despite initial concerns from industry stakeholders, flight operations across the United States have remained stable, with minimal disruption to commercial service.

From October 1–17, 2025, operational data shows:

82.59% of U.S. flights departed on time – a rate consistent with or slightly above typical performance for this time of year.
Flight cancellations remain exceptionally low, even at high-volume airports.
No meaningful decline in operational performance has been observed as a direct result of the federal shutdown.
Minor disruptions have been linked primarily to weather events in the Northeast, not staffing or regulatory delays.

Airport Performance Summary

The table below highlights performance across major U.S. hubs, as well as select regional airports for broader market insight.

Scheduled vs Cancelled Flights:

| Airport | Scheduled | Cancelled | Cancel % | D14 % | A14 % | |---------------------------|-------------------|-------------------|----------|--------|--------| | ORD | 20,802 | 24 | 0.12% | 77.80% | 75.73% | | ATL | 18,643 | 26 | 0.14% | 84.56% | 83.72% | | DFW | 16,973 | 16 | 0.09% | 82.27% | 82.86% | | DEN | 16,374 | 8 | 0.05% | 81.90% | 81.34% | | LAX | 11,939 | 22 | 0.18% | 81.38% | 83.60% | | JFK | 10,011 | 59 | 0.59% | 82.48% | 74.41% | | BOS | 9,780 | 368 | 3.76% | 73.15% | 73.90% | | SFO | 9,049 | 26 | 0.29% | 79.91% | 79.88% | | EWR | 8,725 | 18 | 0.21% | 80.65% | 71.90% | | LGA | 8,620 | 130 | 1.51% | 76.47% | 68.08% | | MIA | 7,601 | 14 | 0.18% | 81.30% | 80.41% | | MSP | 7,458 | 12 | 0.16% | 87.86% | 85.87% | | DCA | 7,187 | 22 | 0.31% | 80.88% | 80.07% | | IAD | 5,892 | 11 | 0.19% | 88.39% | 85.32% | | BNA | 5,832 | 13 | 0.22% | 75.51% | 77.45% | | **Regional** | | | | | | | JAX | 1,558 | 8 | 0.51% | 84.23% | 83.15% | | ATW | 396 | 0 | 0.00% | 85.60% | 81.51% | | GJT | 234 | 0 | 0.00% | 86.96% | 80.18% | | MOT | 125 | 0 | 0.00% | 94.26% | 91.80% |

Key metrics:

D14% = Percentage of flights departing within 14 minutes and 59 seconds of scheduled departure.
A14% = Percentage of flights arriving within 14 minutes and 59 seconds of scheduled arrival.
Industry Target: >80% is considered strong performance.

Analysis

Operational Stability: The shutdown has not yet impacted U.S. air traffic management, airline staffing, or ground operations in any measurable way.
Weather-Related Effects: Slightly lower D14 % performance at BOS, LGA, and EWR correlates with recent weather disruptions in the Northeast, not shutdown impacts.
Regional Airports: Smaller airports like Grand Junction (GJT), Minot (MOT), and Appleton (ATW) show excellent departure punctuality and zero cancellations, reinforcing nationwide operational resilience.

Conclusion

Cirium data shows no significant operational degradation in the U.S. air travel system since the government shutdown began. On-time departure performance remains strong, cancellations are low, and air traffic continues to move efficiently.

Cirium will continue to closely monitor performance metrics, especially if the shutdown persists and begins to impact FAA staffing, safety inspections, or ATC capacity, which could pose operational risk in future weeks.