Cirium Lowers Aircraft Delivery Forecast to 43,000 Through 2045

LONDON — Cirium forecasts about 43,000 new commercial aircraft deliveries between 2026 and 2045, worth US$3.2 trillion in 2026 dollars, as manufacturing constraints temper the pace of airline fleet growth and replacement.

The aviation analytics company's 2026–2045 Fleet Forecast executive summary, released October 13, covers passenger jets and turboprops with at least 50 seats, along with their freighter equivalents delivered to commercial customers.

The headline total is 3,500 aircraft below the 46,500 deliveries projected in Cirium's 2025 forecast, a reduction of about 7.5%. The editions differ in scope: last year's release stated a minimum size of 30 seats, and its forecast ran through 2044. Its US$3.4 trillion valuation was expressed in 2025 dollars. Those differences limit a direct comparison of the two totals.

Cirium expects the supply-demand mismatch of the past five years to persist through the rest of the 2020s. Its outlook identifies engine availability, supply-chain bottlenecks and extended certification timelines among the constraints on adding capacity.

Replacement Demand Meets Production Limits

Cirium projects a global passenger fleet of just over 50,000 aircraft by 2045, growing at a compound annual rate of 3.2%. Last year's forecast put that growth rate at 3.3%.

New deliveries will serve both expansion and replacement of aircraft reaching the end of their economic lives. The delivery total therefore measures more than the net increase in the fleet: retiring aircraft must also be replaced.

The cost of delayed replacement is already visible. In a June 24 statement on aviation supply-chain failures, the International Air Transport Association said the aircraft order backlog exceeded 18,000 and average fleet age had reached 15.2 years. The association linked the shortage of more fuel-efficient replacement aircraft to higher lease rates, increased maintenance costs and missed efficiency gains.

Aircraft availability also depends on keeping engines in service. Airways' coverage of Pratt & Whitney's geared turbofan recovery and maintenance capacity examines how repair capacity affects the return of grounded aircraft to airline fleets.

Single-Aisle Aircraft Dominate Deliveries

Cirium's delivery chart projects 32,675 single-aisle jets, or 76% of new deliveries. Twin-aisle jets account for 6,965, with 1,565 turboprops, 1,170 regional jets and 747 freighters completing the chart. These detailed figures sum to 43,122; Cirium rounds the overall forecast to about 43,000.

The report separately measures passenger fleet allocation across all years of the forecast. On that basis, Airbus accounts for 47%, Boeing 39% and COMAC 5%. These percentages describe the modeled fleet allocation, rather than future delivery market share.

The A321neo is the largest individual aircraft series in that allocation, at 16%. Cirium links the shift toward larger single-aisle aircraft to airlines seeking more seats and lower unit costs while retaining narrowbody network flexibility.

China, India and Asia-Pacific excluding those two countries collectively represent about 48% of modeled passenger fleet allocation. That geographical measure is also distinct from the report's regional delivery chart.

Cirium expects conventional gas-turbine aircraft to remain the foundation of the commercial fleet throughout the forecast period. With sustainable aviation fuel availability and cost still limiting its use, the consultancy expects fleet renewal and improvements in aircraft and engine efficiency to carry much of the near-term work of reducing fuel consumption.