Op-Ed: The State of Commercial Aviation in 2023

DALLAS — In 2023, the commercial aviation industry will see significant changes for manufacturers, airlines, and airports that will define its future development.

Due to national travel restrictions, sluggish market growth, and cautious airline expansion plans, 2022 started out with uncertainty for air travel. However, airlines are expected to report their first post-pandemic profits in the coming year.

We will analyze some of the events that are slated to happen in the next 12 months, including aircraft deliveries and phaseouts, airline and airport inaugurations, and more.

Delivery of the Last Boeing 747

The year 2023 will be a key moment for the world’s most iconic and legendary passenger airplane: the Boeing 747, which Atlas Air (5Y) will be taking delivery of in February. This event will mark the end of more than 50 years of production of the Jumbo jet at Everett Paine Field (PAE), which has seen a total of 1,574 Boeing 747 rollouts since 1968.

This last unit, registered as N863GT, will be the 15^th Boeing 747-8F to join 5Y’s fleet since 2012. In 2023, 5Y will operate only eight aircraft. The remaining will fly in a coordinated manner for other cargo companies.

https://airwaysmag.com/boeing-rolls-out-last-747-built/

The freighter version of the Boeing 747-8 was the first delivered to airlines back in 2011, not the passenger variant, which needed to wait one year more before going to Lufthansa (LH).

The Boeing 747-8 Intercontinental's enhanced design and engine were sufficient to extend the life of the Jumbo jet by nearly two decades. Despite this, due to the superior performance of competing models like the Airbus A350, Boeing 787, and Boeing 777X, production had to be halted.

The last Boeing 747-8 will still fly for airlines for years to come until the retirement of the last ever Boeing 747, which still has a long journey ahead.

First COMAC C919 Entry into Service

The official launch of the world's first COMAC C919 with China Eastern Airlines (MU) is another Asia-related event that could have intriguing effects on the global industry. The first unit, B-919A, was delivered to the carrier in December 2022, after several delays over the years.

However, it is now experiencing a series of test flights to ensure its safety and viability before becoming service-ready. When finalized, China will see its first home-built domestic passenger airplane transport passengers within its borders.

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https://airwaysmag.com/china-eastern-first-comac-c919/

This is actually the main purpose of C919. With an airplane to operate the domestic route network connecting the main Chinese cities, most of the government-owned carriers will gradually transition from the Boeing-Airbus duopoly to a Chinese-built monopoly.

Of course, this is a difficult task that will take several years, but that doesn’t mean Airbus and Boeing shouldn’t be worried. Western manufacturers' sales to Chinese airlines and the domestic market in China, the world's second-largest, may suffer.

On the other hand, due to the numerous safety concerns surrounding the program's design and production, the potential international expansion of the C919 is uncertain, if not impossible; no foreign aviation authority has tried to process any airworthiness certification for the aircraft.

Certification of the Boeing 737-7

Flying back to the United States, Boeing will finally be able to certify the smallest version of the 737 MAX program, the Boeing 737-7. The US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has not yet approved the type for entry into service due to various issues.

This is due in part to the approval by US authorities of a new procedure that requires all manufacturers to install sophisticated alert systems in the cockpit to assist flight crews in the event of a failure during flight.

The Boeing 737 MAX, maintaining the basic cockpit functioning of the rest of the Boeing 737 series, does not have such complex alert systems except for a “warning” light on the main panel that lights up when something goes wrong.

This was the main obstacle that prevented both the Boeing 737-7 and 737-10 from achieving certification in 2022.

https://airwaysmag.com/congress-boeing-737-max-certification/

However, an exception was made for these two MAX variants in cooperation with the FAA, allowing the aircraft to be certified with the same alert systems as the 737-8 and 737-9, which are already in commercial service.

Because of that, Boeing will be free to continue with the final certification processes surrounding the last two variants of the MAX program, which may be finalized just in time to finally start deliveries at the beginning of 2024.

First Flight of Northern Pacific Airways

Every major economic crisis, as always, creates an ideal environment for new airlines to enter the market and offer ground-breaking approaches to commercial aviation. Of the many new airlines expected to start operations in 2023, one of them presents a very interesting economic model that must be considered this new year.

It is Northern Pacific Airways (7H), founded in August 2021, which will try the difficult yet innovative idea to compete with American and Asian carriers on trans-Pacific routes but with a stop in Anchorage (ANC). By doing this, 7H will be able to offer cheaper tickets and a larger network, giving customers the possibility to fly to low-demand Asian destinations from smaller American cities with only one stop in Alaska.

This method is similar to the economic model recently adapted by Icelandair (FI) and PLAY (OG) in the Atlantic Ocean. The model also offers flights between Europe, the US, and Canada with a short stop in Reykjavik (KEF).

The airline is expected to begin operations in spring 2023 with four ex-American Airlines (AA) Boeing 757-200s, a fleet that will be expanded to 13 units, coming primarily from United Airlines (UA).

The development of other airlines such as Condor (DE), which will receive its first Airbus A330neo in 2023, and Norse Atlantic Airways (N0), which will take over the route network left by Norwegian Long-Haul Airlines (DU) or even Fly Atlantic, will also mark the low-cost trans-oceanic model.

New Airport Projects

Along with new airline trends and improvements in the commercial aviation industry, global airports will also see major changes through 2023 that will enable new air transport possibilities around the world. From all the largest projects, we would like to point out a few of them that may have a key role this year both inside and outside the United States.

Beginning with one of the largest expansions in the history of Chicago O'Hare International Airport (ORD), which finally received approval in November 2022 for the construction of two new satellite concourses, United Airlines (UA) is expected to gain a significant portion of its operations in terms of passenger traffic and departures at the airline's largest hub.

https://airwaysmag.com/delta-lax-skyway-open/

Delta Air Lines (DL) is also going through an enormous US$12bn expansion at Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) under the name of Delta SkyWay. The project’s main goal is to increase the passenger capacity of Terminals 2 and 3 by expanding the check-in and security control areas, along with the addition of new gates, which will bring the total to 27 facilities.

Moving away from the Americas down to the Middle East, Saudi Arabia is expected to complete the multi-billion-dollar project of the Red Sea International Airport (RSI), which will serve as a brand-new gate for international tourism from all over the world to the Red Sea and Amaala regions in the Middle East.

RSI is part of the enormous Red Sea Project, which will increase the Saudi Arabian GDP by US$5.86bn by constructing islands, beaches, and even volcanic areas as new tourist attractions for the Saudi Vision 2030 program.

Return to Pre-pandemic Travel Levels

Finally, after three years of losses declared by airlines around the world, there are clear indications that 2023 will be the year when airline companies announce their first profits.

The sudden increase in passenger demand has come as a surprise for airlines across most continents. Carriers needed to look to their stored and retired airplanes for a return to service much earlier than they expected.

The most important comeback, of course, is that of the world’s largest passenger aircraft, the Airbus A380. The type has been officially retrieved from storage by 10 airlines, including Qatar Airways (QR), Etihad (EY), and LH, which on many occasions stated that the retirement of the A380 was permanent and unchangeable.

https://airwaysmag.com/etihad-airbus-a380-return/

Of the 15 total operators of the A380, only four companies have officially decided to never bring back the Superjumbos. These include Air France (AF), China Southern (CZ), Hi Fly Malta (3L), and Malaysia Airlines (MH).

This, of course, is an amazing sign that may finally mark the end of the COVID-19 crisis, which has been the worst-ever commercial aviation crisis in history.

What are your thoughts on what will be the top headlines of 2023? Be sure to leave your comments on our social media channels!

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Featured image: Andrew Henderson/Airways