‍DALLAS — The recent spate of bomb threat hoaxes targeting Indian carriers has caused significant disruption and financial woes to the aviation industry in India.

While the exact motivation behind these hoaxes remains unclear, the pattern and frequency suggest a coordinated effort to disrupt Indian aviation operations.

The rapid expansion of India's aviation sector, driven by economic growth, infrastructure development, and the rise of low-cost carriers, positions the country as a key player in the global aviation market with substantial potential for further growth. Here are some key figures:

• India has become the third-largest domestic aviation market, after the U.S. and China.
• Domestic airline capacity in India has nearly doubled over the past decade, growing at an annual rate of 6.9% between 2014 and 2024.
• The country's total airline capacity is expected to reach 230 million departing seats in 2024, almost double the figure from 2014.

On the surface, these hoaxes can be seen a backlash to an unprecedented growth of India's aviation industry, specially after seeing historic aircraft orders in 2023 and the rise of LCCs, but it seems unlikely as the growth of the aviation market is a consequence of the country moving to its next development phase.

Targeting the aviation sector can also be seen as an attempt to undermine confidence in India's infrastructure and economic growth, but the only fact we have is that the timing of these hoaxes coincides with India's peak festive season, potentially aiming to cause maximum disruption.

Here's an overview of the situation:

Scale and Frequency of Threats

• Over 45 flights of Indian airlines have received bomb threats since Friday night.
• Nearly 40 flights operated by Indian carriers have received hoax bomb threats in the past few days.
• On Saturday alone, over 20 flights of various Indian airlines received bomb threats.

Airlines Affected

The threats have targeted multiple Indian carriers, including:

• Air India
• Vistara
• IndiGo
• Akasa Air
• SpiceJet
• Alliance Air
• Star Air

Impact on Operations

Flight Disruptions

• Several flights have been diverted or delayed due to these threats.
• Some airlines were forced to re-screen all their passengers, causing major inconvenience.
• In one instance, an Air India Express flight from Dubai to Jaipur had to land at Jaipur International Airport following a threat.

Financial Losses

• The financial impact on airlines has been substantial, with losses estimated in crores of rupees.
• For example, a Boeing 777 flight from Mumbai to New York had to dump over 100 tonnes of fuel due to a threat, costing the airline approximately Rs 1 crore in fuel alone.
• The total cost of a single hoax threat can exceed Rs 3 crore, including unscheduled landings, passenger accommodations, and crew replacements.

Response and Measures

• The government is considering placing individuals responsible for hoax bomb threats on a no-fly list.
• Civil Aviation Minister K Rammohan Naidu stated that the government is working on amendments to civil aviation regulations to address the issue more effectively.
• There are plans to increase the deployment of air marshals on flights.
• Investigation agencies are examining whether there is a pattern to these warnings.

Challenges in Tracing Threats

• Many threats are being made through social media accounts using virtual private networks (VPNs), making it difficult to trace the perpetrators.

This ongoing situation has created a significant challenge for the Indian aviation sector, particularly during the peak festive season when air travel demand is high. Regardless, the industry is used to balancing security concerns and maintaining normal operations while facing potential financial losses and passenger anxiety.

Case in point, India's Bureau of Civil Aviation Security (BCAS) has met with domestic airline CEOs in response to the string of false bomb threats. The Director General of BCAS, Zulfiquar Hasan, visited the CEOs of domestic airlines in Delhi at Rajiv Gandhi Bhawan, the headquarters of the Airports Authority of India.

According to India Today, Hasan told the airlines during the conference that all Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) and security protocols were followed.

We’re Not Back in the 70s

Today, it is extremely difficult for bombs to be carried onto commercial flights due to several layers of advanced security measures implemented since past incidents and the 9/11 attacks. Here's why:

Multi-layered Security Approach

Enhanced Screening Technologies

Modern airports employ sophisticated screening technologies that go far beyond the basic metal detectors of the past. These include:

• Advanced X-ray machines capable of detecting suspicious materials
• Explosive trace detection devices that can identify minute particles of explosive compounds
• Full-body scanners that can reveal hidden objects on passengers

Rigorous Passenger and Baggage Screening

All passengers and their belongings undergo thorough screening processes:

• Hand searches of luggage when deemed necessary
• CAPPS (Computer Assisted Passenger Prescreening System) flags suspicious individuals for additional scrutiny
• Removal of shoes, liquids, and electronics for separate screening

Trained Security Personnel

Airport security staff receive extensive training to identify potential threats:

• Behavioral detection officers look for suspicious behavior
• Screeners are trained to recognize components of improvised explosive devices

Additional Security Measures

Restricted Access to Sensitive Areas

• Strict control of access to aircraft, runways, and other secure zones
• Background checks for airport and airline employees

Air Marshals and Reinforced Cockpit Doors

• The presence of undercver air marshals on flights
• Strengthened cockpit doors to prevent unauthorized access

Intelligence and Information Sharing

• Improved coordination between intelligence agencies and aviation authorities
• International cooperation in sharing terrorist watch lists and threat information

While no system is perfect, these comprehensive security measures make it extremely challenging for terrorists to smuggle bombs onto commercial flights.

The last confirmed real bomb threat in commercial aviation that resulted in a catastrophic incident was the bombing of Pan Am Flight 103 on December 21, 1988. This attack, known as the Lockerbie bombing, caused the plane to crash over Lockerbie, Scotland, killing all 259 people on board and 11 people on the ground.

Aviation Security has come a long way since the 80s; today's multi-layered approach to AVSEC significantly reduces the risk and has proven effective in preventing such attacks in the last four decades.