DALLAS — According to Teal Group's 10-year forecast for 2024-2033, there is expected to be steady delivery growth of civil aircraft until around 2030, followed by delivery declines towards the end of the forecast period.

The forecast suggests that volumes will be slightly lower and total values marginally higher than the previous year's forecast. This reflects an increase in unit size and value.

The Teal Group forecast considers various factors, including the backlog of Boeing's 737 MAXs and 787 Dreamliners and Airbus delivering larger A321s than A320s. Outsize revenue growth is also expected from the business aircraft category, with the introduction of the G700 and Dassault 6X in significant numbers.

Year-2023 Summary

• Commercial Aircraft: In 2023, there were 1,390 commercial aircraft deliveries, representing a 10.0% increase compared to the previous year.
• Business Aircraft (Jet and TP): There were 1,024 business aircraft deliveries in 2023, a 5.0% increase from the previous year.
• Civil Rotorcraft: 747 civil rotorcraft were delivered in 2023, reflecting a 6.0% increase from the previous year.
• Utility (turboprop): 115 utility aircraft (turboprop) were delivered in 2023, showing a 22.3% increase from the previous year.
• Total: The total number of deliveries across all categories in 2023 was 3,276, a 7.8% increase from the previous year.

2023 was a relatively decent year, with improvements compared to the previous year. However, the report states that 2023 performance fell short of the peak performance achieved in 2018, where 3,654 aircraft valued at US$166.0 billion (in 2024 dollars) were delivered.

The commercial aircraft segment experienced the most significant decline, with deliveries still down by 25% compared to the high of 1,857 aircraft in 2018. Other categories either maintained or approached their 2018 levels. Although business aircraft deliveries in 2023 surpassed the 2018 figures, they were slightly lower than the peak seen in 2019.

Year-2024 Forecast

• Commercial Aircraft: The forecast for 2024 predicts 1,555 commercial aircraft deliveries, representing an 11.9% increase compared to 2023.
• Business Aircraft (Jet and TP): There are expected to be 1,126 deliveries of business aircraft in 2024, with a 10.0% increase from the previous year.
• Civil Rotorcraft: 739 civil rotorcraft deliveries are forecasted for 2024, showing a slight decrease of 1.0% compared to 2023.
• Utility (turboprop): The forecast predicts 117 deliveries of utility aircraft (turboprop) in 2024, with a 1.7% increase from the previous year.
• Total: The total number of deliveries across all categories in 2024 is expected to be 3,537, with an 8.0% increase from 2023.

According to the forecast, this year's value growth is noteworthy compared to the number of units sold. A few different things cause this. First, Boeing is clearing out a sizable portion of its 737 MAX and 787 backlog. Furthermore, Airbus is prioritizing delivering larger A321 aircraft over A320 aircraft. Significant revenue growth is also seen in the business aircraft category, especially with the expected large-scale deliveries of the G700 and Dassault 6X models.

Regarding the 737 MAX, recent events such as the Alaska Airlines (AS) incident have once again raised concerns about the program. As a result, the group's upcoming forecast will reflect adjusted figures for 737 MAX deliveries in 2023 compared to its initial projections for the 2024-2033 forecast due to the FAA's limitations on MAX production.

The group believes that Boeing will recover in the long run without experiencing a significant loss in its share of the single-aisle market, although it may still be smaller than that of Airbus.

10-Year Forecast (2024-2033)

• The 10-year forecast for 2024-2033 shows 21,488 commercial aircraft deliveries, with a slight decrease of 0.3% compared to the previous estimates.
• Business Aircraft (Jet and TP): The forecast predicts 10,693 business aircraft deliveries, reflecting a 1.1% decrease from the previous forecast.
• Civil Rotorcraft: There are expected to be 7,534 civil rotorcraft deliveries, showing a 1.0% decrease from the previous forecast.
• Utility (turboprop): The forecast predicts 1,204 deliveries of utility aircraft, with a slight decrease of 0.2% from the previous forecast.
• Total: The total number of deliveries across all categories in the 10-year forecast is 40,919, with a minimal decrease of 0.1% compared to the previous estimates.

The above numbers do not show the group's expectation of a cyclic downturn starting around 2030. The base case suggests steady delivery growth through about 2030, followed by delivery declines at the back end of its forecast. Airbus and Boeing have backlogs that will more than cover them through 2030 and beyond, especially with single-aisles.

However, looking at expected traffic growth and the aircraft needed to accommodate that, Teal is starting to detect a possible disconnect between actual need and planes ordered. Downside risks it sees include China no longer being the traffic driver it was before the pandemic and India being unable to pick up the slack, thus leaving world airline traffic growth stuck around low single digits.

The group also asserts that increasing geopolitical tensions could quickly dampen travel demand if it spreads beyond Ukraine and Middle Eastern theaters. Other risks include aircraft movement caps or curbs on business aircraft use in response to climate concerns.

The Teal Group does believe the trend is more positive than negative. Had travel demand not been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, travel today would be 20% higher than it is, it says. This suggests that sufficient latent demand will keep airplanes full and airlines profitable for the next few years. As for 2024, it is likely to be very strong across the industry, and prospects for 2025 and 2026 also look good.

Featured image: Photo: Lorenzo Giacobbo/Airways