DALLAS — Passenger traffic in Latin America is expected to double over the next two decades, from 0.44 annual trips per capita in 2019 to 0.87 annual trips per capita in 2042. According to Airbus' latest Global Market Forecast (GMF), per capita travel rates will nearly double in Mexico and more than double in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Colombia.

Overall, traffic will grow by 2.2% over the next 20 years in the region, equivalent to 2,390 new passenger and cargo aircraft. Of these 2,390 new passenger and freighter aircraft, 190 will be wide-body aircraft and 2,200 will be single-aisle, representing 92% of new aircraft deliveries in Latin America, making Latin America a predominantly single-aisle market.

The expected expansion of the middle class, which is projected to grow from 400 million to 490 million people by 2042, accounting for 67% of the population in Latin America and the Caribbean, is driving the trend towards increased air travel. Furthermore, the significant presence of low-cost carriers (LCCs) has made air travel more accessible, comprising 50% of the total domestic seating capacity in Latin America.

Brazil and Mexico demonstrate the highest adoption rates of the LCC model in the region.

Twofold Increase in Cargo Traffic, In-service Fleet Size

Airbus also explains that the surge in e-commerce throughout Latin America has resulted in a heightened demand for air cargo services over the last two decades. The European manufacturer anticipates that origin and destination (O&D) cargo traffic to, from, and within Latin America will nearly double by 2042.

The GMF also projects O&D passenger traffic to increase by 3.5% annually in Latin America, doubling over the next 20 years. Domestic traffic will grow at a rate of more than 3.8% annually, while intra-regional traffic will increase by 3.2%.

The in-service fleet in Latin America will almost double from 1,440 aircraft currently in service to 2,630 over the next two decades. Of these, 240 aircraft will be maintained, 1,200 will be used to replace less fuel-efficient aircraft, and 1,190 aircraft will represent growth in demand.

Airbus has sold more than 1,150 aircraft in Latin America and the Caribbean. More than 750 are in operation throughout the region, with more than 520 on order, representing a 58% market share of passenger aircraft in service. Since 1994, Airbus has won 75% of net orders in the region.

Featured image: LATAM CC-BHA Airbus A320-271N | Photo: Otto Kirchof/Airways

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