MIAMI – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released today its traffic forecast for 2020 with a 66% drop compared to 2019, which reflects a “weaker-than-expected recovery.” Previously, the association estimated a decline of 63%.
In August, the RPKs and ASKs continued their downward trends, recording 75.3% and 63.8%, respectively, in comparison to August 2019. Regarding the load factor, it dropped 27.2 points to an all-time low for August of 58.5%.
IATA also states that in August 2020, the recovery in air passenger services recorded a halt. This follows the fact that several government-imposed restrictions were put in place again due to new COVID-19 outbreaks.
For Q4 2020, IATA forecasts that recovery will continue to falter, according to forwarding booking numbers. The global RPKs, therefore, is now expected to have a drop of 68% in December from a year ago. The prior estimation was -55%.
IATA Director General and CEO Alexandre de Juniac explained that August had a “disastrous” traffic performance. The numbers “put a cap” on the “industry’s worst-ever summer season.” He added that, currently, the international demand recovery is “non-existent.”
Detailed Numbers of International Markets
Compared to July’s decline, overall August numbers slightly improved. However, the stats by themselves show an international passenger demand drop of 88.3%, a capacity drop of 79.5%, and a load factor fall of 48.7%.
| AUGUST 2020 (% YEAR-ON-YEAR) | WORLD SHARE1 | RPK | ASK | PLF (%-PT)​2 | PLF (LEVEL)​3 |
| Total Market | 100.0% | -75.3% | -63.8% | -27.2% | 58.5% |
| Africa | 2.1% | -87.4% | -75.5% | -36.6% | 39.0% |
| Asia Pacific | 34.6% | -69.2% | -60.3% | -19.0% | 65.0% |
| Europe | 26.8% | -73.0% | -62.1% | -25.5% | 63.5% |
| Latin America | 5.1% | -82.8% | -77.5% | -19.3% | 63.9% |
| Middle East | 9.1% | -91.3% | -80.8% | -44.9% | 37.2% |
| North America | 22.3% | -77.8% | -59.4% | -39.5% | 47.7% |
Detailed Numbers of Domestic Markets
In August, domestic traffic fell by 50.9%, but it recorded a slight improvement in comparison to a 56.9% decline in July. As major indicators, inbound capacity went down to 34.5%Â and load factor fell to 64.2%.
| AUGUST 2020 (% YEAR-ON-YEAR) | WORLD SHARE1 | RPK | ASK | PLF (%-PT)​2 | PLF (LEVEL)​3 |
| Total Market | 36.2% | -50.9% | -34.5% | -21.5% | 64.2% |
| Dom. Australia | 0.8% | -91.5% | -81.2% | -44.9% | 37.1% |
| Dom. Brazil | 1.1% | -67.0% | -64.3% | -6.4% | 76.1% |
| Dom. China P.R. | 5.1% | -19.1% | -5.9% | -12.3% | 75.3% |
| Dom. India | 1.3% | -73.6% | -66.0% | -19.1% | 66.2% |
| Dom. Japan | 6.1% | -68.6% | -28.4% | -45.6% | 35.6% |
| Dom. Russian Federation | 1.5% | -3.8% | -9.3% | -4.6% | 86.4% |
| Dom. US | 14.0% | -69.3% | -45.7% | -37.7% | 48.9% |
Featured photo: Airplanes at Airport. Photo: Brett Sayles.
