FARNBOROUGH — At a media briefing pre-Farnborough, Embraer placed a forecast demand for 10,550 new aircraft with up to 150 seats worldwide, valuing the market at around $600 billion over the next 20 years.
The in-service fleet is set to increase to 16,000 aircraft, which is an increase of 9,000 aircraft that are currently in operation.
The manufacturer said that Market growth will drive 65% of this demand, while the remaining 35% will be the replacement of older aircraft.
Out of the 10,550 aircraft forecasted, the Asia-Pacific market takes the highest level of importance, offering up to 3,000 deliveries with a 28% market share.
North America comes second with 2,780 aircraft representing a 27% market share. Europe came next with 2,240 deliveries at 21% market share, followed by Latin America at 1,140 deliveries for 11% share.
For CIS states such as Russia and the 10 other former Soviet Republics, they represent 580 deliveries with just 6% market share.
Africa comes in at 4% for 450 deliveries and the Middle East concludes the forecast offering 3% market share for 360 deliveries overall.
Embraer added in their forecast that the airline industry will mostly depend on the rise of costs and to what extent the industry itself can sustain healthy revenues in such a volatile environment.
John Slattery, President & CEO, Embraer Commercial Aviation, established:
“Past performance is no guarantee of future results.”
Even though every facet of the industry has excelled over the past years, we are now warming up for the next period of higher costs, with pressures on yields likely to continue unabated.”
“Profits are eroding and gains wiped out with rising cost.”
Embraer believes that their new product lineup, featuring the E190-E2 will challenge the argument that smaller aircraft have higher costs as now the seat cost economics of newer aircraft are providing around 20% trip cost advantage.
All-in-all, Embraer believes that now, through their ventures with Boeing that are to be approved by the authorities, can deliver this forecast over the next 20 years.
It will be interesting to see how Boeing themselves, who have a significant stake in the joint venture, will provide this respectively.
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