MIAMI – Embraer has released its 2020 Commercial Market Outlook for the next 10 years. The President and CEO of Embraer Commercial Aviation Arjan Meijer has declared that the short-term impact of the pandemic has had long-term implications for new aircraft demand.

These include the early retirement of older and less efficient aircraft for a preference for more profitable smaller airplanes. Additionally, there is a growing importance of domestic and regional airline networks as a way to restore the air service. On this, Meijer said that aircraft with up to 150 seats will be instrumental in how quickly the industry recovers.

As a result, the report identifies four drivers that are reshaping worldwide air travel patterns and demand:

  • The fleet rightsizing will shift to a smaller capacity.
  • The regionalization will bring new traffic flows as companies will seek to protect more their supply chains from external shocks.
  • The passenger behavior will have a preference for shorter-haul flights while urban centers will require more options in air networks.
  • The environment will have more prevalence due to a focus on more efficient and greener aircraft designs.
Embraer E2. Photo: Roberto Leiro.

Forecast for Traffic Growth and Airplane Deliveries

For the current decade, Embraer also unveiled its trends for global passenger traffic measured in RPKs and airplanes. On the one hand, the manufacturer forecasted that worldwide RPKs will return to 2019 levels by 2024 and Asia Pacific’s RPKs will grow 3.4% per year, being the fastest market.

On the other hand, 4,420 jet deliveries will take place, being the North American and Asian Pacific airlines the most benefited. On the turboprop’s side, Embraer will deliver 1,080 aircraft while China/Asian Pacific and European carriers will see a major increase in their fleets.

In the third quarter of 2020, the company delivered 28 jets for a total year-to-date deliveries of 59 aircraft.

Featured photo: Embraer E175-E2. Photo: Embraer.