MIAMI – Boeing (BA) today released its 2020 Boeing Market Outlook (BMO) which projects a demand for 18,350 commercial airplanes in the next 10 years, 11% lower than the comparable 2019 forecast. The report indicates that the decline is due primarily to the COVID-19 pandemic.
However, in the 20-year forecast time period, the Outlook indicates that the commercial market will return to its growth trend of 4% annually, generating demand for more than 43,000 new airplanes.
“While this year has been unprecedented in terms of its disruption to our industry, we believe that aerospace and defense will overcome these near-term challenges, return to stability, and emerge with strength,” said Boeing Chief Strategy Officer Marc Allen.
The BMO forecasts a total market value of US$8.5tn over the next decade including demand for aerospace products and services. The forecast is down from US$8.7tn a year ago. Airlines globally have begun to recover from a greater than 90% decline in passenger traffic and revenue early this year. However, a full recovery is likely to take years.
Long-Term Forecast Optimistic
The BMO forecasts a $3 trillion market opportunity for commercial and government services through 2029. Digital solutions are emerging as a critical enabler as customers focus on leaner operations to adjust to future market demand. Life cycle services and support will help customers scale their operations to meet efficiency and cost objectives aligned to market recovery trends.
According to Boeing, the company is taking action to adapt to the new market reality and become more resilient for the long term. This business transformation includes infrastructure, overhead and organization, portfolio and investments, supply chain health, and operational excellence.
Commercial Market Outlook Also Released
Also released today was the 2020 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), an annual 20-year forecast addressing the market for commercial airplanes and services. The CMO projects an increase in the share of deliveries replacing older passenger aircraft that are being retired in an accelerated replacement cycle, especially in the first decade.
“Commercial aviation is facing historic challenges this year, significantly affecting near- and medium-term demand for airplanes and services,” said Darren Hulst, vice president, Commercial Marketing.
“Yet history has also proven air travel to be resilient time and again. The current disruption will inform airline fleet strategies long into the future, as airlines focus on building versatile fleets, networks, and business model innovations that deliver the most capability and greatest efficiency at the lowest risk.”
The CMO Forecast
- Passenger growth will average 4% per year
- The size of the commercial fleet to will increase to 48,400 by 2039, up from 25,900 airplanes today
- Asia will expand its market share to about 40%, up from 30% today
- Single-aisle airplanes such as the 737 MAX will continue to be the largest market segment
- Operators will need 32,270 new single-aisle airplanes in the next 20 years
- Single-aisle demand will recover sooner due to its key role in short-haul routes and domestic markets as well as passenger preference for point-to-point service
In the widebody market, Boeing forecasts a demand for 7,480 new passenger airplanes by 2039. Widebody demand will be affected by a slower recovery in long-haul markets – typical after air-travel shocks – as well as uncertainties from COVID-19’s impact on international travel.
Featured image: Boeing