MIAMI – As COVID-19 vaccines are ready to break into the market, aviation forecasts start to depict what we should expect for Summer 2021, which will be the test bench for the long-waited start of the recovery for the aviation market.

Shanghai Airport. Photo: wikicommons

Nearly Like 2019 Value


Considering as benchmark value the performance of 2019, the new forecast looks very promising underlining the possibility that, if the vaccination programs and vaccine process to approve them will go smoothly, the difference between Summer 2019 and Summer 2021 will be really small.

According to ASM Managing Director Davi Stroud via anna.aero, the key factors for the 2021 routes development scheme and passenger load factors will stand on flight availability driven by passenger demand. It will also be baed on economic health, and airfare, following the personal economic health of Q2 2021.

Airbus A320 Neo Aegean Photo: John Leivaditis

Key-points: Trust and Confidence


A stable and robust recovery will be achieved, following as much as confirmed by ASM, Eurocontrol, among others, with the trust and confidence that the aviation industry establishes with consumers.

Furthermore, the shot in the arm really needed by the aviation market is the removal of the quarantine and border restrictions applied in most parts of the world. These measures are provoking economical damages to all the sectors linked with tourism.

Moreover, a more precise evaluation and expectation from IATA Summer 2021 forecasts will depends on the vaccination capability, which the world countries will achieve in the following months.

This photo taken on June 28, 2019 shows the terminal of the new Beijing Daxing International Airport. – Beijing is set to open an eye-catching multi-billion dollar airport resembling a massive shining starfish, to accommodate soaring air traffic in China and celebrate the Communist government’s 70th anniversary in power. (Photo by STR / AFP) / China OUT / To go with China-Aviation, Focus by Patrick Baert (Photo credit should read STR/AFP/Getty Images)

How Fast the Recovery Be?


This question is still is difficult to answer due to many factors still missing to paint a complete picture regarding the speed at which the market will react.

Basing the evaluation on current data, a combined statistic from multiple organizations expects that in the best case scenario, the the recovery and growth will return again in 2024. Domestic travel will recover first. Then, the international market will surge with leisure, vacation, and VFR being the dominant engines of traffic demand.

The “biggest” issue will be regarding all pre-COVID-19 pandemic routes, as these were economically difficult to sustain due to the low yields achieved. They will unfortunately will be the last ones.


Featured image: Shanghai Pudong Airport. Photo: wiki Commons

Take advantage of our Cyber Monday AIRWAYSCYBER code today, which will give you 30% off digital subscriptions!