DUBAI – Boeing has forecasted that in the Middle Eastern market, there will be a need for 3,350 aircraft over the next two decades, valued at $730 billion.
It is expected that twin-aisle aircraft such as the Boeing 787 Dreamliner and the Boeing 777X and 300-ER models will make up for 50% of the new aircraft in the Middle East, valued at $520 billion alone.
The demand for the 787 Dreamliner, in particular, came yesterday as Emirates placed an order for 40 787-10 Dreamliners in a $15.1 billion order.
More than half of total deliveries in the Middle East are due to be single-aisle aircraft like the 737MAX. Low-cost carrier growth in the Middle East has been exponential so 1,770 aircraft like the 737MAX will be needed over 20 years, which the market alone is valued at $190 billion.
Randy Tinseth, vice president of Marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes commented on this forecast: “Traffic growth in the Middle East is expected to grow at 5.6 percent annually during the next 20 years.
The fact that 85 percent of the world’s population lives within an eight-hour flight of the Arabian Gulf, coupled with robust business models and investment in infrastructure, allows carriers in the Middle East to channel traffic through their hubs and offer one-stop service between many cities.”
On top of this forecast, Boeing will become more present and supportive in the role of their third biggest business unit called Global Services, a $2.6 trillion program which aims to create “tailored solutions and everything in between” featuring the support of commercial and defense systems through the use of global reach, strong customer in-country partnerships as well as positioning the company in the future to become more successful.
The Middle East counts for nearly 10% of Boeing’s long-term demand for the globe. Boeing’s global forecast is in the region of $6.1 trillion, which will require 41,030 aircraft over the next two decades.
Boeing has said that these aircraft are needed to replace the less fuel-efficient aircraft that are currently being operated by such carriers as well as benefitting passengers with lower fares. They believe that if this can be done, then they can stimulate growth in markets, economies and in the business models of the airlines that operate around the world.
Boeing’s forecast appears to be much more confident than Airbus’ as they claim that the Middle East forecast is only valued at $600 billion and require only 2,590 aircraft by 2036, hinting that the market isn’t as strong as what Boeing believes.
They do have the same consensus in twin-aisle aircraft accounting for most of the forecast. All-in-all, it must show that Boeing believes that they can be much more successful in their 737MAX, 787 and 777 families than Airbus with their A320, A350, and A380 families respectively.