DALLAS — Scientists at the University of Toulouse have predicted an increase in clear-air turbulence in the Northern Hemisphere as the climate changes.

The study's findings, which indicate the risks of global warming to aviation, were published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres.

Climate experts utilized 11 climate models and 20 computer simulations to anticipate changes in clear-air turbulence under various scenarios of temperature rises ranging from 1 to 4 degrees Celsius.

According to the studies, turbulence would increase over most Northern Hemisphere locations influenced by the jet stream, particularly in North Africa, East Asia, and the Middle East. Turbulence increases with each one-degree increase in temperature.

What Is Clear-Air Turbulence?

Clear-air turbulence is commonly found near jet streams at altitudes of 10-12 kilometers, where commercial planes travel. As temperatures rise, the amount of energy in the atmosphere rises, intensifying jet streams and vertical wind shear (changes in wind direction with altitude).

Climate change is already affecting clear-air turbulence. An analysis of data from 1980 to 2021 revealed that moderate and severe turbulence rose by 60 to 155% across North Africa, East Asia, the Middle East, the North Atlantic, and the North Pacific.

It important to note that clear-air turbulence prediction is not a precise science, and the researchers acknowledge that additional studies could shed more light on which altitudes would be safer for airliners in the future.

Turbulence in Aviation

Turbulence in flight is the phenomenon involving the airplane's irregular, annoying and unpredictable motion causing it to fly in an undesired attitude, altitude, and direction. If this situation is severe and uncontrolled, it can cause injuries to passengers and crew and damage the airframe.

Singapore Airlines (SQ) Flight SQ321, departing from London Heathrow Airport (LHR) on May 20, 2024, encountered severe turbulence during stormy weather and was forced to make an emergency landing at Suvarnabhumi International Airport (BKK) in Bangkok.

The SQ Boeing 777 aircraft, carrying 211 passengers and 18 crew members, experienced a rapid plunge while flying at approximately 37,000 feet. Tragically, at least one passenger, a British citizen, died as a result of the turbulence, and several others were injured. The incident occurred amid stormy weather conditions.

You can learn more about the causes of air turbulence and how pilots deal with such phenomena in our deep dive on the facts around turbulence and our list of the most turbulent routes in the world.