• Airline capacity between Canada and the U.S. has been reduced through to October 2025, with the most significant cuts occurring during the peak travel months of July and August.
• Passenger bookings on Canada–U.S. routes are currently down by 70% compared to the same period last year.

Though OAG schedules data suggests that airline capacity between Canada and the US remains broadly unchanged for the summer season, a closer look at recent weeks reveals a downward trend in airline capacity and a sharp decline in forward bookings.

_{Comparison of the scheduled seats (in millions) on March 3 and March 24, while the dashed line represents the percentage change.}

Canada-to-US Capacity Cuts

Comparing the total number of scheduled one-way seats between the two countries filed on March 3 and those filed on March 24, the bar chart above shows that over 320,000 seats have been removed by airlines operating between the two countries through to the end of October.

The most noticeable cuts are in July and August - the two peak summer season months - where airlines have cut capacity by some 3.5%.

_{Blue Bars (March 2024 Bookings) vs. Red Bars (March 2025 Bookings): These show the absolute number of forward bookings (in millions) for each month (April to September) at the snapshot dates in March of each year.}

_{Black Dashed Line (% Change): Illustrates the percentage drop (or increase) in 2025 compared to 2024 for each month. The labels on the line give the exact percentage change values.}

Canada-to-US Forward Bookings Collapse

Using forward booking data from a major GDS supplier, OAG has compared the total bookings held at this point last year with those recorded this week for the upcoming summer season. The decline is striking—as per the bar chart above, bookings are down by over 70% in every month through to the end of September.

This sharp drop suggests that travelers are holding off on making reservations, likely due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the broader trade dispute.

Further analysis of this new data can be found in OAG's latest blog.

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