DALLAS — Senior Azerbaijani officials have confirmed media reports suggesting a Russian missile system caused the Azerbaijan Airlines (J2) Embraer E190 to crash near Aktau on Wednesday morning, December 25.

The confirmation comes a day after Azerbaijani media reported that shrapnel from a Russian Pantsir missile system attack had damaged the J2 E190 as it approached Grozny, though no official report has confirmed said attack that the Azerbaijani officials today claim as the cause of the J2 crash on Christmas Day.

The Pantsir missile system is a family of self-propelled, medium-range surface-to-air missile and anti-aircraft artillery systems Russia is currently using against Ukrainian drone attacks in the region.

Additionally, according to Azerbaijani media, Russian electronic warfare systems disabled the aircraft’s communication system, hence its disappearance from radars in Russian airspace and reappearance near the Caspian Sea.

Reports have also surfaced stating that in recent weeks, Russian air defense forces have been trying to shoot down Ukrainian drones in the North Caucasus of Eastern Europe, between the Caspian Sea and Black Sea.

Under these bellicose circumstances, Russian aviation authorities should have restricted civilian flights over the conflict zone prior to the J2-8243 incident, which raises the question as to why this was not the case in the first place.

More Than a Bird Strike?

We can recall that J2 and Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency said birds likely caused the crash. However, publicly available footage from the crash site shows large tail holes, which, to some, suggests evidence of shrapnel damage from a missile attack.

Other reports suggest that one of the plane’s oxygen tanks had exploded before the plane went down, with one Russian blogger writing that “the holes look like those left after a shelling or explosion with striking elements.”

Meanwhile, Euronews obtained information from official crash investigation sources that, nearing Grozny, surviving passengers heard an explosion and saw shrapnel hitting the plane, damaging the fuselage of the E190.

We won’t know if there is any correlation with the J2 crash until an official investigation states that such Russian military operation took place at the same time the J2 E190 was flying over Chechnya and that it indeed cause the damage that led to the fatal crash.

The J2-8432 incident reminds us of the MH17 one fromJuly 17, 2014. During the Donbass war, a Malaysian (MH) Boeing 777 was shot down by a Bouk-M1 surface-to-air missile, fired by pro-Russian separatists who mistook it for a Ukrainian military aircraft.

Official Probe Underway

Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev instructed his government to initiate a commission to investigate the cause of the crash of Flight J2-8432, which occurred as the jet attempted to make an emergency landing near the Kazakh city of Aktau.

Aliyev said in an official briefing released by the Azerbaijani Presidency, “The commission's task is to fully investigate the matter, examine the causes of the crash and all its details, and provide information both to me and to the Azerbaijani public.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov urged patience until the investigation results and warned against any speculation that the plane was shot down.

The only facts we have so far are as follow:

1. The aircraft began squawking 7700, the code for a general emergency, at 10:08 a.m., Baku time, more than two hours after it was due to land in Grozny, confirming that the crew knew something was wrong.
2. The J2 E190 impacted the ground 20 minutes later, roughly 3 miles/5km northwest of Aktau Airport’s (SCO) runway 11. Twenty-nine of the 67 people on board survived the ground collision.
3. Azerbaijan Airlines has suspended southern Russian routes to Grozny and Makhachkala until the inquiry into the Embraer E190 loss concludes.

Azerbaijan is holding a national day of mourning today for the victims of the crash.

This is a developing story.

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